Advantage Announces Montney Reserves Update at Glacier, 2009 Guidance, Adjusted Distribution and Hedging Update
(TSX: AVN.UN, NYSE: AAV)
CALGARY, Dec. 18 /CNW/ - Advantage Energy Income Fund ("Advantage" or the
"Fund") is pleased to announce a reserve and operational update for our
Montney natural gas play at Glacier where the Fund will have incurred
approximately $92 million of capital expenditures in 2008 evaluating the
resource potential in this area.Highlights of the Glacier update include:
- Significant increase in Proven and Probable reserves at Glacier by
313% to 38.6 million boe
- Increased land holdings during 2008 to 94 sections of contiguous land
at an average working interest of 91%
- Production to commence in Q2 2009 at an anticipated rate of 20 to
25 mmcfd from a successful horizontal and vertical drilling program
- Over 400 horizontal drilling locations have been identified on
approximately 50 sections of land based on drilling results to date.
The Fund is in the initial planning stages to accommodate future
facilities expansion to 100 mmcfd of natural gas productionThe Fund is planning a conservative approach for 2009 recognizing the
uncertainties created by ongoing volatility in commodity prices and financial
markets. The Fund has taken a number of steps to preserve financial
flexibility and to continue the development of our extensive Montney land
block at Glacier as well as other key properties. These steps include the
reduction of our 2009 capital expenditure level to a range of $100 to $130
million (down from approximately $250 million in 2008) and a reduction of our
monthly cash distribution to $0.08 per unit. In addition, we have entered into
additional crude oil and natural gas hedges and our maximum hedging period has
been extended from 18 months to 24 months.
Glacier Montney Reserves Increased by 313% to 38.6 Million BOE in 2008
Advantage achieved significant results from our 2008 drilling and
development program at our Glacier property in northwest Alberta where the
Fund has commenced the development of its extensive Montney natural gas
resource play. Advantage engaged our independent qualified reserves evaluator
Sproule Associates Ltd. ("Sproule") to update the reserves analysis for our
Glacier property in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 and the COGE
Handbook.Glacier Reserves Highlights
----------------------------
- Proven and probable reserves at November 30, 2008 increased by 313%
from 9.3 million boe to 38.6 million boe and proven reserves
increased by 466% from 2.9 million boe to 16.7 million boe as
compared to the December 31, 2007 Sproule report.
- Based on Sproule's reserves assignment at Glacier, the proven and
probable reserves additions of 29.3 million boe represents 2.5 years
of our annual corporate production.
- Sproule estimates the net present value (NPV) of the reserves to be
$260.9 million on a proven & probable basis and $91.1 million on a
proven basis (NPV, before tax at a 10% discount rate) calculated
using Sproule's November 2008 price forecast.
- Sproule assigned reserves to 31 sections of land out of our current
total land holdings of 93.6 sections. Continued delineation drilling
in the future will provide information to help access the potential
of the remaining undeveloped lands.
- Sproule's reserve assignment is based on an average horizontal well
density of 2.4 gross wells per section. We presently have regulatory
approval to drill up to 8 wells per section (4 wells in the Upper
Montney and 4 wells in the Lower Montney).
- Capital expenditures at Glacier in 2008 are anticipated to be
$92 million of which $53 million have been directed to drilling and
completion activities, $22 million to facilities, pipelines and
infrastructure development and $17 million to acquisition of
undeveloped land.
Proven and Probable Reserves Reconciliation - Working Interest
---------------------------------------------------------------
at November 30, 2008
---------------------
Before
Tax
NPV
at 10%
Discount
Natural Oil + Rate
Gas NGL Total (Million
(bcf) (mbbl) (mmboe) $)
-------------------------- --------
December 31, 2007 Sproule Evaluation 53.2 479.1 9.3 $ 48.9
2008 Change 170.7 835.9 29.3 $ 212.0
-------------------------- --------
November 30, 2008 Sproule Evaluation 223.9 1,315.0 38.6 $ 260.9
-------------------------- --------
--------------------------
Land value
Advantage internal estimate @
$4,200/ha $ 63.0
--------
Total Glacier value $ 323.9
--------
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i) Sproule's reserve assignment was allocated to a total of 92 gross
wells/locations in the Montney zone (57 Upper Montney
wells/locations, 26 Lower Montney wells/locations and 9
wells/locations completed in both the Upper and Lower Montney) as
well as 21 wells/locations in other horizons which include
Dunvegan, Bluesky, Nikanassin and Halfway.
ii) A total of 74 gross horizontal wells/locations and 18 vertical
wells/locations were assigned reserves in Montney.
iii) Future capital associated with Sproule's incremental proven and
probable reserves assignment increased by $304 million to
$432 million
iv) Using the December 31, 2007 and the November 30, 2008 Sproule
price forecast
Glacier Operational Update
---------------------------
- A total of 7 gross (5.7 net) horizontal and 9 gross (8.6 net)
vertical wells have been drilled by Advantage in 2008. In addition,
there are 15 pre-existing wells that were drilled on our acreage by
other operators that fully penetrated the Upper and Lower Montney
zones. Information provided by these wells greatly expands our
geological control and will guide our delineation drilling of the
property.
- Four horizontal wells (2.7 net) have been tested to date with flow
rates of 2.5 to 7.5 mmcfd (417 to 1,250 boe per day) from three tests
in the Upper and one in the Lower Montney. These rates are very
comparable to results achieved by offsetting operators in the
adjacent Swan Lake and Tupper Fields.
- Well testing results from 6 vertical delineation wells in 8 intervals
(6 Upper Montney and 2 Lower Montney) confirmed commercial
productivity which has set up additional horizontal locations. Based
on drilling results to date, we estimate that there are in excess of
400 future horizontal drilling locations on approximately 50 sections
of land in the Upper and Lower Montney based on 4 wells per section
per zone. Further delineation drilling will be required to evaluate
the remaining 43.6 sections.
Facilities Infrastructure
--------------------------
- Facilities and pipeline expansion now in progress include a 22.5
kilometer pipeline and additional compression facilities to increase
production capacity to approximately 25 mmcfd (4,167 boe per day). We
anticipate that production from these facilities will be on-stream
during the second quarter of 2009.
- Additional pipeline and compression construction, which will increase
our facility capacity to over 50 mmcfd, is in the initial planning
stages. Our design approach provides future flexibility and access to
multiple natural gas sales points in order to accommodate expansion
to more than 100 mmcfd.
Land Sales
-----------
- During 2008, numerous land sales occurred within and around our
Glacier land block. Advantage spent a total of $17 million to acquire
14.5 gross (12.5 net) sections of strategic land all of which
directly offset our initial land holdings. At present, our Glacier
land block contains 93.6 gross (85.5 net) sections at an average
working interest of 91%.
- We estimate the value of our undeveloped land holdings at $63 million
using an average land purchase value of $4,300 per hectare based on
recent land sales.
Go-Forward Plans
-----------------
- Approximately $51 million of our 2009 capital budget will be directed
to the continued development of Glacier. Capital expenditures will
include $39 million for drilling and completions and $12 million for
facilities and infrastructure activity.
- Our 2009 objective is to continue horizontal drilling and facility
development to increase production and to conduct additional
delineation drilling to further evaluate our land block. The Fund is
targeting initial production rates of 20 to 25 mmcfd during the
second quarter of 2009. Additional capital expenditures may be
undertaken to further increase production depending upon commodity
prices.
- We are confident that further drilling will continue to add
additional reserves on our existing acreage and we expect to ramp up
production in 2010 to over 50 mmcfd subject to commodity prices. As
indicated, our pipeline connections will allow us to transport up to
100 mmcfd after further expansion and modification to our existing
facilities.
2009 Guidance
The Board of Directors of Advantage has approved 2009 Guidance as
follows:
- Annual production in 2009 of 30,800 to 32,800 boe per day with a 65%
natural gas weighting
- Operating costs are estimated to be $13.95 to $14.45 per boe
- Royalty rates are estimated to be 19% to 21% which includes changes
to the Alberta royalty rates commencing January 1, 2009
- Capital expenditures between $100 to $135 million with approximately
46% directed to further developing our Montney natural gas reserves
and production at Glacier
- Other capital expenditures in 2009 will focus on key properties such
as Martin Creek, Nevis, Sunset and Willesden Green where our previous
drilling programs have been highly successful.As a result of a much lower commodity price environment driven by global
economic concerns, Advantage will be very disciplined and proactive to
undertake actions as required to balance our capital, cash distribution and
cash flows as we prepare for a challenging 2009. However, our capital
expenditure priority will be to ensure the funding of further development in
our Montney resource play at Glacier where the Fund sees significant reserves
and production growth potential.Adjusted Distribution Level
- As a result of continuing weakness in the commodity price
environment, the Board of Directors has determined that the cash
distribution level will be adjusted from the current $0.12 per unit
per month to $0.08 per unit per month beginning with the December
2008 distribution.
- Advantage intends to preserve its financial strength and maintain
flexibility to execute on internal opportunities including our
significant Montney reserve play at Glacier and acquisition
opportunities as they arise. Accordingly, the Board of Directors will
continue to monitor the level of cash distribution to ensure that the
Fund's financial strength is maintained.
- The revised monthly distribution of $0.08 per unit will be payable on
January 15, 2009 to Unitholders of record at the close of business on
December 31, 2008. The ex-distribution date is December 29, 2008. The
cash distribution is based on approximately 142.8 million Units
outstanding.
- The CND$0.08 per Unit is equivalent to approximately US$0.07 per Unit
if converted using a Canadian/US dollar exchange rate of 1.20. The US
dollar equivalent distribution will be based upon the actual
Canadian/US exchange rate applied on the payment date and will be net
of any Canadian withholding taxes that may apply.
Hedging Update
Additional commodity price hedging has been completed for 2009 and 2010 to
reduce the volatility of our cash flows. In addition, the Board of Advantage
has approved an increase in the maximum hedging period to 24 months from 18
months. The following table summarizes our current hedging position.
Hedging Summary
----------------
% of net
Production Description of Average
Volume Hedged Hedged Derivative Prices ($Cdn)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Natural Gas
(AECO - $Cdn)
Q4 2008 64,767 mcf/d 65% Fixed Price 7.64 /Mcf
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Q1 2009 61,608 mcf/d 59% Fixed Price 7.87 /Mcf
Q2 2009 56,869 mcf/d 52% Fixed Price 8.17 /Mcf
Q3 2009 56,869 mcf/d 54% Fixed Price 8.17 /Mcf
Q4 2009 56,869 mcf/d 57% Fixed Price 8.17 /Mcf
Total 2009 58,054 mcf/d 56% 8.09 /Mcf
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Q1 2010 42,652 mcf/d 43% Fixed Price 7.79 /Mcf
Q2 2010 14,217 mcf/d 15% Fixed Price 8.23 /Mcf
Total 2010 14,217 mcf/d 15% 7.90 /Mcf
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Crude Oil
(WTI - $Cdn)
Q4 2008 4,500 bbls/d 49% Fixed Price 94.39 /bbl
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Q1 2009 3,167 bbls/d 36% Fixed Price 95.84 /bbl
Q2 2009 2,000 bbls/d 23% Costless Collar 62.00 - 76.00 /bbl
Q3 2009 2,000 bbls/d 24% Costless Collar 62.00 - 76.00 /bbl
Q4 2009 2,000 bbls/d 25% Costless Collar 62.00 - 76.00 /bbl
Total 2009 2,292 bbls/d 27% 73.69 - 82.85 /bbl
-----------------------------------------------------------------------Advisory
The information in this press release contains certain forward-looking
statements. These statements relate to future events or our future
performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be
forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not
always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan",
"continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict",
"potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe",
"would" and similar expressions. These statements involve substantial known
and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond Advantage's
control, including: the impact of general economic conditions; industry
conditions; changes in laws and regulations including the adoption of new
environmental laws and regulations and changes in how they are interpreted and
enforced; fluctuations in commodity prices and foreign exchange and interest
rates; stock market volatility and market valuations; volatility in market
prices for oil and natural gas; liabilities inherent in oil and natural gas
operations; uncertainties associated with estimating oil and natural gas
reserves; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions, of
reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel; incorrect assessments of
the value of acquisitions; changes in income tax laws or changes in tax laws
and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry and income trusts;
geological, technical, drilling and processing problems and other difficulties
in producing petroleum reserves; and obtaining required approvals of
regulatory authorities. Advantage's actual results, performance or achievement
could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, such
forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurances can be given that
any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire
or occur or, if any of them do, what benefits that Advantage will derive from
them. Except as required by law, Advantage undertakes no obligation to
publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.
References in this press release to initial test production rates,
initial "flow" rates and "flush" production rates are useful in confirming the
presence of hydrocarbons, however such rates are not determinative of the
rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter.
While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates
in calculating the aggregate production for the Fund.
Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) or billion of cubic feet of gas
equivalent (BcfGE) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe
conversion ratio has been calculated using a conversion rate of six thousand
cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel and a BcfGE conversion ratio has been
calculated using a conversion rate of 1 million barrels of oil to six billion
cubic feet of gas. Such conversion rates are based on an energy equivalency
conversion method application at the burner tip and do not represent an
economic value equivalency at the wellhead.
The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for Advantage's Glacier
property presented in the press release update estimates of reserves and
future net revenue for Advantage's Glacier property presented in Advantage's
Statement of Reserves Data and other Oil and Gas Information for the year
ended December 31, 2007 prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101
- Standards of Disclosure of Oil and Gas Activities (NI 51-101) as reported in
Advantage's annual information form dated March 28, 2008, which is available
on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue as
presented in this press release are estimates only for Advantage's Glacier
property and not for all of Estimates of net present value of future net
revenue of reserves do not represent the fair market value of such reserves.
Advantage's properties and therefore such estimates may not reflect the same
confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all
properties, due to the effects of aggregation.
Sproule prepared the estimates of reserves and future net revenue for
Advantage's Glacier property using Sproule's November 30, 2008 price forecast,
which is available on Sproule's website at www.sproule.com.
%CIK: 0001259995
For further information:
For further information: Investor Relations: Toll free: 1-866-393-0393; Advantage Energy Income Fund, 700, 400 - 3rd Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 4H2, Phone: (403) 718-8000, Fax: (403) 718-8300, Web Site: www.advantageincome.com, E-mail: advantage@advantageincome.com